Do you remember in 2004 when the Australian Treasurer, Peter Costello, asked Australian couples to lift their game when it came to having more babies? “One for Mum, one for Dad and one for the country,” he urged.¹

At the time the fertility rate was around 1.7–1.8 children per woman, and this was thought to be such a problem that the government instituted a $3,000 ‘baby bonus’.

In 2025–26 the fertility rate is expected to be down to 1.42.² So we’re still a long way short of replacing ourselves (which requires a rate of around 2.1).³

But how big a problem these statistics represent is not the issue I want to discuss. Instead I’m interested in asking: Is another similar population growth shortfall occurring in our churches? If so, what might be causing it and what does it mean for church life and policies?

You see, I keep hearing that healthy evangelical churches are struggling to recruit enough growth group/small group/Bible study leaders. I don’t have any hard data on it, other than a few anecdotes and a small straw poll (33 responses) on Facebook, in which 94% of respondents (31) agreed that it is a struggle for their church.

But if it is a trend, why might this be taking place?

In God’s kindness, many of our churches are growing, and so we have an increasing number of people wanting to be in a growth group. So we need more groups and more leaders.

And then some experienced leaders step down because they ‘need a break for a while’. Some potential leaders don’t step up because they feel too busy⁴ to commit the time to preparing and leading well. And some step back because they don’t feel they have the skill or Bible knowledge such a role requires. It also would not be a surprise to me if some people step back from leading because they feel like their Christian lives lack authenticity.

So here’s the big question: is this shortage of leaders an indicator that our growth groups are not actually proving very effective in growing people as disciples of Jesus? 

If our ‘growth groups’ were actually living up to their name, wouldn’t we be praying for, expecting and seeing a steady stream of people ready and willing to lead? Surely the goal of our growth group ministry is to grow people’s biblical convictions, godly character, desire to serve, and their readiness to step into a teaching role? “By this time you ought to be teachers” (Heb 5:12). Why are group members sitting in our growth groups year after year and not showing any clear progress towards this? What’s going on?

Back in 2021 I made this comment (in Home groups: starting the year well):

One of my friends calls most small groups ‘sheep pens’. He doesn't mean it as a compliment! Seeing home groups as nice cosy places where we try to stop people becoming lost sheep is a very limited view of what our groups can be. Wouldn’t it be marvellous to instead see our small group as a place of personal transformation and Copernican revolution as people discover and live out more and more the truth that the centre of their galaxy is not themselves, but the Lord Jesus and his kingdom?

If we aimed to achieve this view of what can be accomplished in a growth group, I don’t think it’s likely that we would have a shortage of people in our churches who are ready and willing to move from being a group member to a group leader.

So what might it look like for us to change our group ministry with this goal in mind? That’s a very big question to address in a short article, but let me offer seven ideas, and ask you to send me some more.

1. If your expository Bible studies always look at the same passage as the sermon (which no doubt has some benefits), consider changing this for a season and cover more of the Bible than you might have otherwise done.
2. A default diet of expository Bible study is good. But, as Tony Payne has argued, it is not necessarily sufficient. There is another kind of teaching that adds real value—what Tony refers to as ‘applied theology’. As he writes:

   Just as in theology we need both biblical and systematic theology, so in church life we need both to teach and apply the Bible expositorily on its own terms and teach and apply the theology of the Bible to the issues and challenges of our lives.

   I think, for example, of a resource like The Course of Your Life that is designed for use in growth groups and that challenges group members to think about God’s big plans for the world and how they can participate in them. Many have done that course and gone on to exercise valuable ministries of speaking the word to others.
3. Once or twice a year, consider cancelling groups for a month, and bring people together at the church for some of this applied theology teaching—a series of topical talks from one of the pastors, along with discussion, Bible and prayer in groups at tables. One church I know calls this their ‘Discipleship Academy’, and it has proven to be a very positive addition to their church life.
4. I suspect that one of the areas we need to be doing more applied theology is on the ‘big eternal realities’—Jesus’ impending return, judgement, hope, the blessings and glory of the new creation—and how these truths powerfully shape the way we live now. (I’ve been thinking a lot about this recently through my work on The End in Mind.)
5. Encourage group members to read good Christian books together—not as a replacement for their Bible studies but as something they do outside of their normal gathering—sharing thoughts with each other about what they are reading (e.g. via WhatsApp). People are willing to read, and it will help them enormously. They just need guidance and encouragement to do it.
6. Current leaders could meet one-to-one with the group member they think has the most potential to become a leader, reading Richard Sweatman’s fine little book Being a Small Group Leader and talking and praying together about the five key leadership characteristics the book highlights as important: knowledge of God, character, teaching ability, encouragement of others, and team leadership. They could then coach them as they have a go at co-leading a study, and then leading on their own.
7. Encourage group leaders to establish a culture of ministry service among group members. Ask everyone in the group to identify the contexts in which they personally encourage and teach others the Bible, and make sure you regularly pray for each other in those ministries. As Tony Payne’s new book points out, speaking the word to each other is something every Christian is responsible for doing. Their growth group is a context in which they ought to strongly feel that expectation.

Alternatively, our churches could just offer a $3,000 baby leader bonus. 🤔

Ian

1. I have it on good authority that one bloke accosted Mr Costello on the street and said, “Hey Treasurer! Four years ago my wife and I had one for Mum. Two years ago we had one for Dad. And six weeks ago we had another one for the country … So when are you coming round to collect him?”↩

2. Centre for Population, ‘2025 population statement’, Australian Government, (population.gov.au/publications/statements/2025-population-statement).↩

3. Which is a reason why Australia looks to immigration as a means to supplement the population.↩

4. Someone should write a book about that. 😊↩